Basketball Fiend

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The first T25-U25 of the season is always the most difficult one for me to write. Maybe that’s why I’ve subconsciously postponed it for so long. (Sorry, everybody. I know you’ve been waiting.)

The first list of the season is built on a small sample size. There simply haven’t been enough games yet to make a concrete impression; which makes ranking players against each other difficult.

In the preseason, it’s all about speculation. I think this guy’s going to play well. I think this guy’s going to fail. I think this guy will get hurt 10 games into the season. (Calm down, Lakers fans. That wasn’t a veiled shot at Andrew Bynum. Stop being so sensitive.) The burden of proof is minimal. I can conjecture all I want.

That’s why the preseason version is so much fun to write.

The second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, etc. installments are easy for a different reason. Players have more or less returned to equilibrium. Guys who started uncharacteristically hot tend to cool down, and guys who started uncharacteristically cold tend to heat up.

By the second or third month of a season, I pretty much know where everybody stands.

But the first list of the season? The first list is always the hardest. For the reason I mentioned above (small sample size), it’s something of a crap shoot.

For example: do we know if Brandon Jennings is for real? Or simply off to a hot start like O.J. Mayo in 2008-09? Will Derrick Rose’s struggle last the whole season? Will Andrea Bargnani fall back to Earth? Will Al Jefferson ever be completely healthy? Will Monta Ellis strangle Don Nelson? Will Josh Smith rekindle his love affair with the three point line? Etc., etc.

I’ve accounted for these questions in the analysis below. Even so, some of these choices are bound to be controversial. Feel free to dissect in the comment section below.

Here, in my opinion, are the best 25 players under age 25:

1. LeBron James
Age: 24
Previous Rank: 1
Movement: –

There are a lot of off-court distractions for King James this season. Chief among them is the 2010 free agent speculation. But there’s also the number switch debate, the Nike billboard controversy, and the whole becoming a movie star thing. It’s a complicated life LeBron leads. But on the court? On the court, LBJ is delivering as usual. He’s shooting the ball better than ever, playing killer defense and handing out assists at a career high rate. Yes, he leads the league in ref baiting. And, yes, his shot selection at the end of games leaves something to be desired. But LeBron is just as valuable as ever. He’s still the hands down best player in the league under 25.

LeBron James: Shooting Stars

2. Dwight Howard
Age: 23
Previous Rank: 2
Movement: –

Last season, the gap between #1 and #2 on this list narrowed significantly. D-Howard led the league in blocks and rebounds, won Defensive Player of the Year, and showed a focus that few believed possible from a goofball like DaWight. It was no longer 1. LeBron………………… 2. Dwight. It was 1. LeBron2.Dwight. Ya dig? But that was last season. This season Howard is struggling a bit. His defense has fallen off somewhat, he’s no longer leading the league in rebounding, and he’s getting into foul trouble in crucial games (Detroit, Phoenix, Cleveland). If Superman doesn’t pick up the pace, he’ll have plenty of competition for the number one spot when LeBron graduates in December.

3. Chris Paul
Age: 24
Previous rank: 3
Movement: –

It’s been a tough season for CP3. The Hornets started the season with one embarrassing loss after another. Then Byron Scott got fired. Then Paul badly sprained his ankle in a game against the Blazers on Nov. 13. Despite these frustrations, Paul is putting up good numbers and competing as hard as he always does. There isn’t a specific timetable for Paul’s return, but he ditched his ankle boot recently and participated in shoot-around with his teammates. When he returns, he’ll be judged just like everybody else. If his game isn’t up to snuff, I’ll drop him a few spots; regardless of his history on this list.

4. Josh Smith
Age: 23
Previous rank: 8
Movement:+4

I use four main criteria for evaluating players on this list: 1) are they having a good year statistically?, 2) are they being efficient?, 3) are they showing improvement?, and 4) is their team winning? Josh Smith hits all four check marks this season. He’s having a good year statistically (15.6 pts, 9.6 reb, 2.6 blks). He’s more efficient than ever, having cut three-point shooting out of his diet. He’s improved significantly in terms of rebounding, defense and on-court maturity. And, most importantly, he’s the main reason for the Hawks’ hot start. If that doesn’t justify a jump into the top 5, I don’t know what does.

See who makes the cut, 5-25, after the jump.

5. Andrew Bynum
Age: 22
Previous rank: 12
Movement: +7

Bynum is beasting. He’s emerged this season as the dominant low post player we saw break out in 2007-08. Except now he’s getting five more shots per game. Last season, teams could hope to beat the Lakers by pounding them inside and beating up Pau Gasol. But that’s not an option anymore. Now that Bynum’s healthy, he’s destroying opposing front lines. At 19.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, he’s the most dominant interior player in the league. Other than Dwight Howard, of course. As much as it pains me to see a Laker in the top 5, Bynum’s earned it. I guess he didn’t need Kareem as much as we thought he did…

6. Kevin Durant
Age:
Previous rank: 4
Movement: -2

Durant just keeps getting better and better. Last season he improved his shot selection and honed his three-point range. This season he’s getting to the line more often (9.1 times per game) and rebounding better (7.2 per game). But Durant isn’t the game-changer yet that Bynum and J-Smoove have become. That was pretty evident on Nov. 22 when the Thunder played the Lakers. Bynum destroyed the Thunder down low, while Durant hit only eight of 20 shots and failed to keep OKC in the game. It wasn’t pretty. If KD hopes to move back into the top five he has to prove that he can will his team to victory. Otherwise he’s just a terrific player on a mediocre team.

7. Rajon Rondo
Age: 23
Previous rank: 5
Movement: -2

Rondo recently said that he’s shooting so poorly this season because he’s focusing so much on creating for his teammates. “It’s hard for me to get the mindset to shoot the ball when I’m open,” Rondo said. “I always try to pass first. When I shoot the ball, I’ve got to think shot.” To me, that’s a lame excuse. There’s no reason Rondo shouldn’t be able to make open jumpers and dish out 10+ assists. Deron Williams does it. Chris Paul does it. Steve Nash does it. Why can’t Rondo? His numbers are impossible to ignore (8.9 assists and 2.6 steals per game), but I can’t stand Rondo’s excuses. He should be improving. Not whining. I’m putting him seventh.

8. Brook Lopez
Age: 21
Previous rank: 11
Movement: +3

Lopez is a very good center. In fact, he’s borderline dominant. But he won’t move up this list any further until he proves that he can hang with the NBA’s upper echelon centers. Granted, Lopez played well against Andrew Bynum Sunday night. But in two games against Dwight Howard and the Magic this season, Lopez has averaged just 7.5 points and five rebounds. That’s not going to cut it. Neither is his 8.5/5.5 average against the Nuggets nor the 11/4 he posted against the Bucks.

Lopez has talent. Few players can walk into this league and average a 17.9/8.9/2.5 in their second season as he has done. Respect is earned in the trenches, though. Not on a stat sheet. Lopez must prove that he can bang with — or outsmart, or outshoot — the league’s premier bigs in order to earn that respect.

9. Andrea Bargnani
Age: 24
Previous rank: N/R
Movement: Welcome back!

Seven footers who shoot 42 percent from beyond the arc are rare. (Which is probably why the Raptors drafted Bargnani first overall in 2006.) Bargnani creates a huge offensive advantage for Toronto. And while his defense is second rate, his rebounding has improved this season and he appears more willing to absorb contact. At 7-11, the Raptors are not an elite team in the East. But they do have an elite offense. Bargnani is one of the key reasons why.

Warriors fans are going to smell blood once they see Bargs this high and Monta Ellis low (more on this later). The difference is that Bargnani is an upper echelon outside shooter and he makes his team better. Also, the Raptors have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs this season.

10. Derrick Rose
Age:
Previous rank: 7
Movement: -3

There’s no doubt about it. Rose is having a disappointing sophomore season. After a breakout rookie year, Rose has looked stiff and uncomfortable so far. He’s averaging just 15.4 points and 5.1 assists and his turnovers are up. There’s a legitimate excuse. Rose has been playing on a bum ankle all season, limiting his explosiveness. But ultimately Rose needs to develop an outside shot and start attacking the lane like he did last season. Otherwise there’s no way to keep defenders honest. I’m keeping Rose in the top 10 because he has superior athleticism and a good nose for the game. If he continues this sophomore slump I’ll promote other point guards ahead of him, though. A bad ankle is no excuse for 16.7 percent three-point shooting and a 1.7:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

11. Al Horford
Age: 23
Previous rank: 23
Movement: +12

Like Josh Smith, Horford is having a terrific 2009-10 season. He’s always been a talented forward — especially when you account for his phenomenal passing ability — but this year Horford is really putting it together. He’s averaging career-best numbers across the board. He’s shooting over 56 percent from the field. And he’s helped his team to neutralize some of the best big men in the league; from Kevin Garnett to Greg Oden to Emeka Okafor. Okay, fine. Okafor’s a stretch. Sue me. The point is this: Horford is undersized, but he’s still getting the job done. His defense combined with his efficiency combined with Atlanta’s breakout success all qualify Horford for a 12-spot jump.

12. Brandon Jennings
Age: 20
Previous rank: N/R
Movement: Debut

Brandon Jennings is the best rookie in the league this season. (And that means a lot coming from me. I’m a no-holds-barred Tyreke Evans supporter.) It’s not just the numbers — 22.3 points and 5.5 assists per game. It’s not just the 55-point game. (Which was amazing, I must say.) It’s also Jennings’ composure and confidence, and the excitement he brings to the game. I’ve never seen so many tweets about the Bucks before. I’ve never heard so many people say they’re going to watch them play on League Pass. It’s amazing what he’s doing for the Bucks’ franchise and the city of Milwaukee. Even though Jennings is only a rookie — and he’s likely to experience a decline sooner or later — I feel comfortable with his debut at number 12. The Bucks are in good hands with him at the point.

13. Eric Gordon
Age: 20
Previous rank: 15
Movement:+2

Yes, Gordon sat out eight games with a groin injury. And yes, he had a miserable game his first time back. But with Gordon in the lineup, the Clippers are 5-5. Without him, they’re 3-5. He obviously makes the Clippers a better team, and it’s easy to see why. Gordon shoots 39.1 percent from three-point, making him the best shooter on the team not named Steve Novak. He also handles the ball well, gets to the line and commits to defense. He’s the league’s next great shooting guard. I just hope he can avoid the “Clipper curse” long enough to reach that potential.

14. Al Jefferson
Age: 24
Previous rank: 6
Movement: -8

Given Al Jeff’s significant body of work — no, that’s not a fat joke — I feel uncomfortable dropping him further down the list than 14th. The big man is struggling. That much is obvious. But Jefferson’s rough start is due to a family emergency and trouble with injuries, not a lack of effort or a loss of talent. He’s averaging a miserable 15.9 points and 7.5 rebounds, and the Timberwolves are losing like never before, but I have confidence that Jefferson will find his way back. He’s too good a post player to fade like this forever.

15. LaMarcus Aldridge
Age: 24
Previous rank: 9
Movement: -6

Aldridge isn’t putting up the best stats of his career, but he’s been efficient in reduced minutes and the Blazers are winning. In an ideal world, Alridge’s mid-range game sets up Greg Oden and Brandon Roy on the interior. Oden on the block, and Roy cutting to the hole. That’s when the Blazers are at their best. But that all goes out the window when everyone else settles for jumpers too (like what happened against Memphis Friday night). Aldridge is a highly specialized forward who is more or less reliant on everyone around him. Does that justify a position at number 15? When the Blazers are firing on all cylinders, yes. As I said before, efficiency and wins count for a lot on this list.

16. Joakim Noah
Age: 24
Previous rank: N/R
Movement: Debut

I don’t care if it came out weeks ago. The fact that Noah was left off the All-Star ballot is ridiculous. He’s averaging an 11.1/11.7/1.6 for crying out loud. And he’s playing that crazy brand of defense he was famous for at Florida. You know, the winning kind. Except Chicago hasn’t been winning as much as they were in the beginning of the season. Looks like Vinny Del Negro is going to have to re-think this whole running-around-frantically-on-defense-and-playing-half-court offense thing. Either way, Noah is playing great basketball.

17. Luol Deng
Age: 24
Previous rank: N/R
Movement: Welcome back!

Deng is playing like it’s 2006-07 — which, not coincidentally, was the last time he was relevant in the league — and the Bulls are reaping the benefits. (At least they were until a hellish five-game road trip that included consecutive losses to the Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers and Jazz.) With Ben Gordon gone, Deng is picking up the scoring slack, averaging 18.1 points on 45.9 percent shooting. He’s also locking down the opposition’s best player on a nightly basis. Not bad for a guy who was written off after two underwhelming seasons. Glad to have you back, Luol!

18. Tyreke Evans
Age: 20
Previous rank: 22
Movement: +4

Any time a rookie is averaging an 18.8/4.7/5, shooting close to 45 percent from the field, getting to the line five and a half times per game, and leading his team to an unexpected 8-8 start, it’s a good thing. You can’t argue that. Especially not when that rookie is playing as good on defense as Evans has been playing. Whether you define ‘Reke as a point guard, a shooting guard, a hybrid guard or a Right Guard, one thing is clear: the kid can play. He’s going to be an elite player in the NBA sooner than you think. (Oh, and he can freestyle too.)

19. Russell Westbrook
Age: 21
Previous rank: 12
Movement: -7

Westbook had me fooled the first few games of the season. His jumper looked great. He was making good decisions with the ball. And the Thunder were winning. Now he’s back to shooting 42 percent, he’s making sloppy passes (many of them after he’s left the ground), and, well, the Thunder are still winning, but only when Westbrook has a good game. Seven of OKC’s nine wins have come when Westbrook has shot better than 40 percent from the field. In other words, the Thunder go as far as Westbrook is able to take them. In terms of excuses, there’s probably a good one for why Westbrook has been so inconsistent. I just don’t have as much confidence in him as I do in Derrick Rose.

20. Greg Oden
Age: 21
Previous rank: 20
Movement: –

Oden is one of the few players I predicted correctly in the preseason rankings. Which should tell you how screwed up the beginning of the season has been. The Bearded Buckeye has made great strides this season. Like Paul Bunyan, Godzilla-type strides. I’ll let Zach Harper tell you about it, because, honestly, I couldn’t put it any better than this:

Holy Wes Unseld, this guy can defend the paint. I mean, he’s really, really, really, really, really good at it. He changes shots all the time and wipes away second chance points before they even can materialize, thanks to his rebounding. This guy is nearly as good now as Ben Wallace was when he was still alive, only he has the potential to actually matter on the offensive end of the floor. He’s a guy you can anchor a young team with simply off of his defensive presence.

That’s right, Greg Oden is a legitimate defensive player now. Conduct yourselves accordingly.

21. Monta Ellis
Age: 24
Previous rank: 26
Movement: +5

From a statistical standpoint, Ellis has been awesome this season. He’s averaging 23.1 points, 5.5 assists and 2.4 steals per game. Those are great numbers. Truly, they are. The problem is that the Warriors are 5-10. They’re in last place in the Pacific Division and Monta’s complaining about how heavy the load is, and how he’s the only one who’s doing anything about it. Comments like that are immature and destructive. They don’t help. They only make things worse. And that’s why Monta is at number 21 on this list rather than 16 or 17.

22. Rudy Gay
Age: 23
Previous rank: 21
Movement:-1

There’s really nothing wrong with how Gay is playing right now. I don’t mean to insinuate with a one spot drop that he’s done poorly this season. He’s actually averaging the best numbers of his career and shooting 50 percent from the field. But he’s also playing nearly 40 minutes per game and the Grizzlies simply aren’t winning. They’re 6-11 and they look awful. Team success matters. And Gay doesn’t have the kind of history that someone like, say, Al Jefferson does. I know Al Jefferson is going to return to form. But I don’t know if Gay is going to keep shooting this well. So, for now, I’m keeping him at 22.

23. Marc Gasol
Age: 24
Previous rank: 27
Movement: +4

I’ll never forgive Gasol for cutting off his beard. But the guy is leading the league in field goal percentage, and has improved his scoring average by four points while only taking one more shot per game. I can’t deny someone that efficient a spot on the T25-U25. Gasol’s averaging a double-double — 16.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game — but he’s not disruptive to the Grizzlies’ offense. He just takes what he can get. And he hits the boards. Hard. I’m glad to have him on the list. He’s worked hard and he deserves the recognition.

24. Jason Thompson
Age: 23
Previous rank: N/R
Movement: Debut

Last season Thompson played hard, but he was constantly at the wrong place at the wrong time. He was always in foul trouble. In fact, he averaged a foul every seven minutes according to Sactown Royalty. But it extended beyond fouls. Thompson just looked uncomfortable on offense. He’d make bad reads, take rushed shots and miss free throws. This season he’s improved. A lot. JT’s averaging a near double-double now. He’s still in foul trouble more often than he should be, but he’s taking his time on offense. He’s cutting to the lane with purpose, absorbing contact and making 80 percent of his free throws. Along with Tyreke Evans, Thompson’s leading the Kings to just as many victories as defeats. Which is a good thing, considering preseason expectations. It’ll be interesting to see if Thompson’s ceiling extends past 14.1/9.5.

25. Aaron Brooks
Age: 24
Previous rank: N/R
Movement: Debut

Last season, the Rockets shipped Rafer Alston out of town and handed Brooks the keys to the car. He hasn’t taken his foot off the accelerator since. At 9-8 with Yao on the shelf, the Rockets are exceeding expectations in typical Rick Adelman fashion. Brooks is a big reason for that. The lightning quick guard is having the best season of his career, averaging over 16.3 points per game and shooting 36.4 percent from three-point. If he can cut down on his turnovers, Brooks will become a mainstay on this list until January, when he turns 25.

On the cusp: O.J. Mayo (26), Lou Williams (27), Anthony Randolph (28), Rudy Fernandez (29), Michael Beasley (30)

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